12 Three-Year-Olds vie for bragging rights in Lexington

Horseracing Betting Lines

04/16/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Unless we see a handful of defections between now and May 1, it looks as if the $300,000 Lexington Stakes will not be a major factor in determining the Kentucky Derby lineup.

The only horse with a chance of reaching the starting gate on the first Saturday in May is Todd Pletcher's Connemara, and even if the son of Giant's Causeway hits the wire first, Pletcher isn't 100% certain he'll send the chestnut colt into the first leg of the Triple Crown.

Still, the Grade 2 event is a compelling betting race featuring 12 horses of equal talent. Even the morning line oddsmaker had difficulty determining a favorite as four colts are between 4 and 6-1.

The tepid early favorite is Uptowncharlybrown, who'll be the sentimental choice after losing his trainer, Alan Seewald, to a deadly heart attack earlier in the week. Linda White, his longtime assistant, will saddle the fifth-place finisher from the Tampa Bay Derby.

Uptowncharlybrown does receive a positive rider change going from Daniel Centeno to Garrett Gomez but the long-striding son of Limehouse is still an unknown over the Polytrack surface. It's quite possible even with the jockey switch that the colt could regress in the Lexington.

As mentioned earlier, Connemara is the lone horse in the race with a chance to be draped with the blanket of roses in two weeks. He ran third in his last start - the Lane's End Stakes at Turfway Park - the first time he failed to finish first or second in five lifetime appearances.

Connemara has had multiple problems getting out of the gate with the rest of the horses and it severely affected his chances in the Lane's End after hopping at the start. Don't expect his penchant for poor breaks to improve in the Lexington as he has now broke slowly in four of his five career efforts.

Kettle River is another colt with something to prove after a disastrous eighth- place finish in the Sham Stakes back on March 5. In that race, jockey Brice Blanc got him in all sorts of trouble right from the start breaking dead last in the 10-horse field. Remaining in that position after checking slightly around the far turn, the son of Congaree was finally free and clear through the stretch but had little in the tank inside the final furlong.

As is the case with Uptowncharlybrown, a rider change from Blanc to J.J. Castellano could move the horse forward. The unknown factor is Polytrack as Kettle River has never set foot in a race on that type of synthetic. Nevertheless, his workouts at Keeneland could indicate a liking for the surface, especially after he breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 earlier in the week. If he's ever going to get back to his winning ways, this Saturday could be the day.

One horse that shouldn't have any problems with Polytrack is Krypton. The son of Rock Hard Ten prevailed in an allowance race on opening day at Keeneland by over six lengths, and Kiaran McLaughlin sends him right back 15 days later.

He should break quickly from the rail but the key will be for jockey Alan Garcia not to get caught in an early speed duel with Exhi. If those two colts go too fast in the first half of the race, it is doubtful either one will find himself in the winner's circle.

Speaking of Exhi, he's the second Todd Pletcher-trained horse in the race besides Connemara. Don't forget, the four-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer has won the Lexington the last two years with Advice and Behindatthebar.

Exhi was abused by Odysseus in a Tampa Bay allowance race in mid-February, losing by 15 lengths. However, he had a built-in excuse that day since it was his first start off a 116-day layoff.

The son of Maria's Mon bounced back to win the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park, the same day as the Lane's End. Ridden by Russell Baze, the bay colt led by a full length throughout, with splits of 47 2/5, 1:11 2/5 and 1:37 3/5 for four, six and eight furlongs, before finishing up the 1 1/16 in 1:44 2/5.

For comparison purposes, the internal fractions of the Lane's End were 48 2/5, 1:12 3/5 and 1:37 4/5, with the winner, Dean's Kitten, running a slower time at each point in the race. In addition, the horse on the lead for all three splits wound up ninth and last.

Robby Albarado will take him as far as he can go on Saturday but don't expect similar results since Krypton will be breathing down his neck for much of the race.

LONGSHOTS TO CONSIDER

I mentioned earlier that the Lexington is a very contentious race, so there will be a few decently-priced horses to keep a watchful eye on.

Call Shot comes to Keeneland off a third-place finish to Radiohead and Homeboykris in a one mile allowance race at Gulfstream Park on February 27. He ran his final quarter-mile that day in 24 1/5 showing that the 1 1/16-miles won't be too much of a burden.

Don't forget, the $235,000 yearling purchase was actually favored over (and defeated) American Lion last September. He then followed up that effort with a win (via disqualification) over Polytrack at Keeneland.

Call Shot has been working well over the track as evidenced by his 58 2/5 bullet on April 5 - his fastest work of 2010. There's a good chance he'll be at least 10-1, so pluck a few dollars down on the son of Tale of the Cat.

Prince Will I Am makes his first start in almost two months since an eighth- place run in the Fountain of Youth. In fact, he's now lost twice to Eskendereya by over 30 lengths. On the other hand, the Kentucky-bred already has a victory at 45-1 and a second-place finish at 42-1 so he's proven to be able to fool the public on more than one occasion. His late closing style should pay dividends at Keeneland so don't rush to throw him out of the exotics.

Distorted Dave comes into the Lexington off a huge score at Santa Anita, knocking off both Big Man Has a Sign and Indian Firewater by over four lengths. Trainer John Sadler has been hot as a pistol with Sidney's Candy and Line of David winning Grade I stakes this month so toss Distorted Dave at your own risk.

Chief Counsel is another colt with a license to improve off his last outing. The Bill Mott-trained three-year-old was the next-to-last priced horse in the Lane's End but finished a decent fourth in his first graded stakes appearance.

He comes into the Lexington off just one posted workout since that race but it was a dandy 46 4/5 breeze over the track last Saturday. It will be interesting to see if he is able to carry some of that early morning speed into the race, especially since his only start at Keeneland was a gate-to-wire victory over First Dude, who just finished third in the Blue Grass.

Unfortunately, he's stuck all the way on the outside in post 12, so even if Kent Desormeaux wants some early speed he might be forced wide if Exhi, Heavenville and Kettle River all break sharply from his inside.

Heavenville comes into the Lexington off a 6 1/4-length win in an ungraded state-bred stakes event on Louisiana Derby day at the Fair Grounds. His 1:44 2/5 final time for the 1 1/16-mile race compared very favorably to Mission Impazible's victory in the Derby so keep that in mind when you see him go off at 20-1 or higher.

Selections: 1) Kettle River; 2) Call Shot; 3) Distorted Dave. The longshot is Prince Will I Am.

MEDAGLIA d'AMOUR RETURNS

After knocking off entry-level allowance foes on March 14, Medaglia d'Amour takes a giant step up in class this Saturday in the Grade II Santa Barbara Handicap at Santa Anita.

The four-year-old filly also must contend with the grueling 1 1/4-mile distance after running a flat mile last month. However, she's bred to run all day as her dam, Izara, is a half-sister to Fraise, and her granddam, defeated John Henry in the 1983 Oak Tree Invitational.

Tuscan Evening, the expected favorite, comes into the Santa Barbara riding high a three-race stakes winning streak so Medaglia d'Amour's price should be a square one.

If she is able to come through with a victory, there's no telling how good the Ben Cecil-trained filly could be.

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We all know by now that the “public” loves to put their money on the FAVORITES and the OVERS.  Just by taking a quick glance at Sportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends” it appears as is this tendency will continue as far as the Eastern Conference games are concerned.  For the inaugural games of the first round, 69% of the early money is on Toronto -4.5; 59% of bettors prefer Chicago -4.5; 84% are backing Detroit -9; and 56% think Cleveland -11.5 is the way to go.  As far as TOTALS are concerned, the only UNDER the “public” is backing is the Cleveland/ Washington game in which 83% are pounding the UNDER (190).  Remember, there is no better way to predict a possible line change than by monitoring MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”.   By determining who the “public” is backing, you can get the most ideal line for your bet.  For example, if you are siding with the public you better place your bet before the line moves in the wrong direction.  On the other side of the coin, if you prefer the team that the “public” is betting against; you might be able to get and extra ½ or even more by placing your bet a bit later.  Under the “Betting Trends” section, Sportsbook.com also provides plenty of statistical data and trends in order for the bettor to make the most informed pick.  Below are some extremely important trends for the first round opponents of the Eastern Conference match-ups, more can be found at MySportsbook.com

New Jersey Nets vs. Toronto Raptors

Toronto was the most reliable covering team this season with a 48-33-1 ATS record but covered the OVER only 41.5% of the time.
The last 20 times these teams have played, the TOTAL has gone UNDER 16 times.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Toronto is 33-19 ATS including 17-9 at home.
 New Jersey has covered four games in a row while Toronto has failed to cover their last four games.
When playing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season, New Jersey was just 5-13 ATS this season.
After scoring 105 points or more, Toronto has covered the OVER only 28% of the time this season. 
 
Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls

Miami has failed to cover their last 7 games whereas Chicago has covered 6 out of their last 8 games.
Miami has covered the UNDER in four of their last five games whereas Chicago has covered the UNDER in five out of their last six.
When playing on Saturdays, Miami covered 80% of their games this season.
Away from home, Chicago is just 16-25 ATS this season.
At home, Miami covered the UNDER about 66% of the time whereas Chicago covered the UNDER about 61% of the time.
The last 13 times these teams have played each other, Chicago has covered 9 times.
In Miami’s last 11 road games, the UNDER covered 9 times. 
 
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons

Detroit has covered 5 out of their last 6 games.
Away from home, Detroit is 28-13 ATS but just 14-26-1 ATS at home.
At home, Orlando covered the UNDER 64% of the time while Detroit covered the UNDER in 63% of their away games.
The last five times these teams have played in Detroit, the OVER covered each time.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Detroit is 8-17-1 ATS at home but 17-9 ATS away.
Detroit covered the spread 5 out of the last 6 times they played Orlando.
After a Division game, Orlando covered the UNDER 87% of the time this season. 
 
Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers

In a home game where the TOTAL is between 190 and 194.5 points, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season.
Washington has covered the UNDER in their last 6 games and in 8 of their last 9 games.
The last 6 times these teams have played each other, the UNDER covered each time.
When playing on 3 or more days of rest, Washington is just 18-37 ATS since 1996.
Since 1996, Washington is 28-16 ATS versus Cleveland including 11-5 over the last 3 seasons.
In their last 7 road games, Washington is 6-1 ATS.
Versus Eastern Conference teams at home, Washington is just 6-18-2 ATS. 
 
For even more betting trends for not just the NBA but for all of the major sports, log on to Sportsbook.com and click on “Trends”.  With only two months left in the NBA betting season it is important to be as well informed as possible in order to maximize your profit.  Also for all of you poker players, check out MySportsbook.com’s “WSOP Low Bid Auction”. You could be on your way to Vegas to play against the world’s best poker players for under a buck.

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MySportsbook.com favors Bears, Bengals, Chargers and Colts to remain perfect

LAS VEGAS , Sept. 28 - Two big match-ups of undefeated teams have fans salivating at the Week Four schedule in the NFL. The Chicago Bears stifling defense looks to provide a less than hospitable welcome to the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday night in a battle of two 3-0 teams in the NFC conference. In the AFC, the San Diego Chargers (2-0) head to Maryland to face the surprising Baltimore Ravens (3-0) as both try to keep pace atop the conference standings. Betting Lines makers at MySportsbook.com, online sportsbook and casino, have set the Bears as 3.5 point favorites while the Chargers are a 2.5 point bet.

Of the three remaining undefeated teams, only one, New Orleans, enters this week's game as an underdog. Despite an emotional and resounding win over Atlanta on Monday night, the Saints are a 7.5 point underdog against the struggling Carolina Panthers. Indianapolis looks to stay perfect when they face the New York Jets as a 9 point road favorite while the Cincinnati Bengals are a 6 point favorite at home to the New England Patriots.

Six teams enter the week still looking for their first win, with a seventh, Tampa Bay, on a bye week. The prospect of dropping another game would not bode well for a potential playoff run. Since 1990, just three teams -- the 1992 Chargers, 1995 Detroit Lions and 1998 Buffalo Bills -- have overcome losing their first three games of the season to earn a postseason berth. And only the Chargers managed to accomplish the feat after starting 0-4.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your NFL football betting needs.