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11/03/2011 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The richest weekend in racing comes our way at Churchill Downs this weekend as the BC Classic highlights 15 total Breeders' Cup races The $5 million Classic pits the filly Havre de Grace against last year's two-year-old champion Uncle Mo and 10 possible upsetters.
Havre de Grace has lost just once this year - by a nose to Blind Luck in the 1 1/4-mile Delaware Handicap. Her only real threat comes in the form of So You Think, who will be performing in his fourth race in just over two months. The son of High Chaparral has won nine of his 13 starts over the last two years, including victories this season in the Eclipse and Irish Champion Stakes, as well as a fourth-place finish in the Arc de Triomphe.
Uncle Mo has looked fabulous since returning to the races but he is a question mark at 10-furlongs.
Look for either Havre de Grace or So You Think to win the Classic with To Honor and Serve holding on for third.
Six of the 15 races will be on Friday, Nov. 4 beginning with the fifth race on the card - the $500,000 Juvenile Sprint.
Secret Circle was installed as the 6-5 favorite after two straight wins by a combined 12 1/2-lengths. The Bob Baffert-trained two-year-old showed he can rate when he sat off the two speeds in his last start and should dominate this weak field.
The Juvenile Fillies Turf event is highly contentious that is sure to produce a longshot winner. The two expected favorites - Elusive Kate and Somali Lemonade - have lost just one race between them. However, the former will be making her first start in North America while the latter starts from post 14.
The choice here is Dayatthespa - runner-up in the Natalma Stakes on the weeds at Woodbine in her last appearance.
The Filly and Mare Sprint is next with Turbulent Descent set as the morning- line favorite. The three-year-old hasn't raced since early August, which might be cause for concern since she has never started off a layoff this long.
I lean to a pair of four-year-olds. One is the possible second choice while the other is one of five 20-1 shots on the morning line.
Since finishing second in this race last year, Switch has yet to finish out of the money despite only two victories. Her recent third-place effort in the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes should propel her in the right direction come Friday.
Tanda has also finished in the money in her last four starts with only one winner's circle appearance. Trainer Mike Mitchell prepped her for this on the grass so expect a solid performance.
The Juvenile Fillies is another wide-open affair but the favorites should have the edge. Weemissfrankie is on the list of three undefeated potential winners that also includes Grace Hall and the probable favorite - My Miss Aurelia.
Look for a couple of fillies to run with My Miss Aurelia early on, which will soften her up for the late coming charge of Weemissfrankie.
The Filly and Mare Turf features a pair of foreign fillies - the undefeated Nahrain and Announce. However, Stacelita will more than likely be favored after back-to-back victories in the Flower Bowl and Beverly D.
The choice here is Dubawi Heights. She has lost only once this year, a second- place finish to Stacelita on a yielding turf course at Arlington Park. There's not much speed in the race so look for her to control the pace and hang on for the gate-to-wire victory.
The final Friday event is the $2 million Ladies' Classic. With Havre de Grace running in the Classic, there really isn't a single standout in the field. The top pick is Ultra Blend, who will be making her first start at nine-furlongs. She is ultra-consistent with six straight first or second-place finishes.
A pair of pre-Breeders' Cup selections for Friday are Katz My Song in race two and the John Sadler-trained Gladding in race three.
BREEDERS' CUP SATURDAY
The Marathon opens up Saturday's Breeders' Cup card and the choice here is Giant Oak.
The Juvenile Turf follows with State of Play taking on the role as morning- line favorite. However, the two-year-old, trained by Graham Motion, was saddled with the 14 post. In what should be a wide open race, take a shot with Fantastic Song, who ran third in the Pilgrim Stakes over a very soft turf course at Belmont Park six weeks after breaking his maiden at Saratoga.
Big Drama looks to make it two straight Sprint wins but this time he comes in with only one prep since mid-January. Nevertheless, he is the class of a race that is lacking in quality horses. Amazombie will be his main competition.
Chamberlain Bridge tries for a repeat in the Turf Sprint but the seven-year- old gelding drew the far outside post position in a field of 14. As is the case in the Juvenile Turf, don't be shocked if a longshot prevails as the morning-line favorite, Regally Ready, has won just one of his last three races.
The choice here is Great Attack for trainer Wesley Ward. The four-year-old colt drew a solid post position (five) and should sit right behind Rapport early on. If that filly doesn't handle the turf, look for Great Attack to inherit the lead and surprise the field at huge odds.
The Dirt Mile is a fantastic race but imagine how much better the Sprint would have been if this race was never created. Who wouldn't have loved to see Big Drama go up against The Factor and Trappe Shot.
The Factor should have the early lead but don't be surprised if Tapizar runs him down into the stretch. From there, look for Trappe Shot, Wilburn, and Caleb's Posse to make it a four-horse photo at the wire with Trappe Shot defeating the three-year-olds.
The Turf will showcase the European contingent of Await the Dawn, Midday, St Nicholas Abbey, Sarafina, and Sea Moon. The pick is Await the Dawn.
The Juvenile could be the best race of the day with undefeated Union Rags taking on Mine That Bird's brother Dullahan; the possible freak Hansen, who has won his two starts at Turfway Park by a combined 25 1/2-lengths; the Florida Stallion Series champion Fort Loudon (four-for-four with lasix); Royal Lodge Stakes winner Daddy Long Legs; and the two California standouts, Creative Cause and Drill.
The longshot choice is Alpha. The son of Bernardini won at first asking by six lengths going seven-furlongs at Saratoga and followed that up with a well- beaten, second-place finish behind Union Rags in the Champagne. It might be difficult to improve over five-lengths on Saturday but the well-bred two-year- old picks up Garrett Gomez, and with a better break from the gate, could turn the tables on the expected favorite.
As previously mentioned, there are a couple of horses searching for back-to- back Breeders' Cup victories but nothing compares to what Goldikova could accomplish in the Mile. She'll be looking for her fourth consecutive win in this event. Surprisingly, American-based horses have finished second in her previous three wins and two of them (Gio Ponti and Courageous Cat) are back at it here.
The play is another foreign-based horse - Byword.
A half-brother to multiple Grade I winner Proviso, Byword comes into the Mile off two straight wins, and even though Goldikova has beaten him twice, both of those races were run at nine-furlongs - one-furlong more than this race.
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BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
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