Red Sox shoot for third straight win against battling M's

Baseball Betting Lines

07/24/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Red Sox try to make it three straight wins this evening when they continue their four-game set against the Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field.

The Red Sox will turn to Jon Lester to keep them in the win column, as the southpaw will take the hill trying to rebound from his fourth loss on the season. In the 4-2 setback to Texas on Sunday, Lester surrendered four runs -- three earned -- on nine hits, but he also struck out six batters in eight innings.

The loss halted Lester's personal three-game winning streak.

Lester has been solid throughout the season, especially on the road where the Washington native is 5-2 in nine starts, and that comes with an impressive 2.78 earned run average.

However, Lester has endured struggles against Seattle in his career, posting just a 1-1 mark with a lackluster 4.55 ERA in five outings.

Taking on Boston will be a former player from the organization in David Pauley. Pauley, who participated in nine combined games for the Red Sox in 2006 and 2008, will be making his third start on the season since being called up from Tacoma back on June 27th. Both of Pauley's starts have come at home, but in both matchups the right-hander was defeated.

The last time Pauley took the hill he surrendered three runs on eight hits in a 6-1 setback to Chicago.

Last night, Bill Hall hit the go-ahead home run in the seventh inning and Josh Beckett pitched into the sixth in his first appearance in over two months as Boston edged the Mariners, 2-1.

Beckett had been sidelined with a lower back strain. In his first game since May 18, the right-hander went 5 2/3 innings, yielding one run on five hits with three walks and five strikeouts. He threw 98 pitches, 62 for strikes.

The Red Sox blew a five-run lead in the ninth inning on Thursday, but managed to win the opener of the four-game series, 8-6, in 13 innings. Jonathan Papelbon, who was part of that ninth-inning collapse, escaped a jam in the final frame Friday for his 22nd save of the year.

The Mariners not only suffered their eighth loss in 10 games, but tempers boiled over in a skirmish in the team's dugout in the fifth inning apparently over a lackadaisical effort in the top portion of the frame by second baseman Chone Figgins.

Josh Wilson was already warming up to replace Figgins when Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu told Figgins that he was being removed from the game.

"I don't think you can point a finger at anyone," said the Mariners' Russell Branyan. "I just think that Wak walked down there and told Figgy that he was done and Figgy wanted to explain his side of the story, how the play went down. That was pretty much it and I think that some tempers flared a little. That's about it."

Lopez had his jersey pulled over his head as a cluster of players came together in the dugout. Figgins and Lopez were being held back by teammates on one side of the dugout, while Wakamatsu appeared to be at the other end and also part of the argument.

"In the fifth inning I didn't think there was much effort on that back-up," Wakamatsu said. "One thing people have to understand, everybody in that dugout cares and tempers fly a little bit. What happens in there stays in there."

Boston is 9-4 in the past 13 contests in this series.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.